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失業保険・追加補助金の延長 ($600?)と、($1200?)Stimulus Check 第2弾、いつになったらもらえるの?
- #1
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- Hawaii-Suki
- 2020/08/06 15:34
失業保険の追加補助金と、Stimulus Check第2弾を含んだ、話合いがCongressで行われてますが、これがどうなるかの、皆さんの予想を聞きたいなと!
Democrat's は、UI(失業保険)の追加補助金の$600/週は絶対に必要だという立場で、一切妥協する気がない、強気の姿勢です。
Republican'sは、当初$200/週を2ヶ月行い、その後に、それぞれの収入の70%程度を支払いの基準にするという立場で、交渉が行われてましたが、
法案がまとまらないまま、時間ばかり経つのは望ましくないという意見が強く、明日、金曜日までに合意をしなければ、ホワイトハウスの参謀長 Mark Meadows氏が辞任すると表明したり、トランプさんも、早急に合意に達することが出来なければ大統領権限を発動し、Eviction Ban(強制立退き禁止 )や、UIの改善、Stimulus Checkの発行(噂程度)、などを強行するとDemocrat'sに牽制(脅し?)している状況で、明日までに基本合意にこじ付けられるのか? それとも、溝が埋まらず、Republican'sが設定している期限を超えて、泥沼化するのか?
勝手に予想しますと、明日までに発されるのは:
① 基本合意に達し、来週中に法案がまとめられ、成立! ← 1番望ましいですが、可能性は35%位ですかねー?
② 部分合意のみで終わり、さらに1週間の猶予を発表 ← 中々、溝は埋まらないのではないかと、可能性は45%かな?
③ 平行線を辿り、交渉決裂、トランプさんが大統領権限発動! ← 1番避けたい結果ですねー、可能性は20% (希望的観測)
皆さんの意見お聞かせください!
そして、UI追加補助金の件も、勝手に予測しますと、最終的に収まる金額は:
A) Democrat'sの勝利で、$600/週 ← Repが折れる可能性はあると思うから、可能性は40%
B) 間をとって、$400/週 ← 一番現実的かな? 可能性は50%
C)Republican'sが押し切り、$200/週、その後収入の70%に調整 ← これは、無いかなー、可能性は0%
D) 苦肉の策で、数カ月は$600/週、その後、$400/週 ← こんな感じで、お互いの顔を立ててもおかしく無いかな? 可能性は10%
個人的には、①とA)で収まってくれると、非常にうれしいんだけどなーー、難しいのかなーって思います。
ご意見をお聞かせください。
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